Change or Die

Its still early in the decade so its presumptuous to already give it a theme.  But presumption aside, I’ll try: Change or Die.  Whether you are a dictator in the middle east, or a technology powerhouse on the west coast, 2010s are bringing the specter of redefinition to big and small alike.  There are large examples that everyone is familiar with: Yahoo, is “changing” from a search company to a data management company.  HP is changing from a PC manufacture to a data management company.  Borders is changing from a publisher and bookstore to an e-book distributor.   Blockbuster isn’t changing and well… its dying.  The list goes on.

Let me point out a small change that maybe few have noticed: Jan, Microsoft announced that it would no longer attend CES beginning in 2013, and it would not host the iconic keynote address.  The reason given was Microsoft planned to spend more on their own events, such as their annual developer’s conference, and Microsoft product announcements.  Although definite fiscal wisdom can be seen in the tactical nature of this move, the strategic reason may be different.

In an effort to survive in this environment of change, Microsoft is placing more emphasis on foreign markets and spending less to develop a declining US PC market.

Here are some things to consider:

• In 2011 US showed a 5% drop in PC sales, while the international community saw 37% PC growth.
• For 2013 Microsoft both canceled its CES presence and increase its investment in the European technology show: Cebit

As American’s we are familiar with the concept that, technology would take hold in the US and spread to the rest of the world from there.  This can be clearly seen with worldwide desire for iPhones, and iPads.  Historically the US dollar has been strong enough, such that desirable technology regardless of origin, will find its way to that dollar.  What we are not used to is some company’s product launches are skipping the US entirely.  This emphasizes a new reality where worldwide economies are large enough to support non-US product launches, and require increased marketing attention for US companies.    In recent interviews, Nokia’s Stephen Elop has clearly stated that the focus of Nokia will be on growth markets, and the US will be significantly deemphasized.  Many of Nokia’s future products will no longer be supported for the US at all.  These are big words considering the nature of the Microsoft / Nokia partnership.

Foreign consumer electronics markets have a long way to go before they out pace the American consumer electronics market; however they are clearly starting to shift in that direction.

Whats new at CES

Gaming

This is a field that I usually don’t take too seriously; however after over a year of integrating a tablet into my daily life, I have come to recognize that mobile gaming is a HUGE industry and for better or worse it will help shape the future of tablet computers.  One of the most impressive gaming advancements was project-fiona: a tablet based consul with access to the Xbox gaming library.  This combines traditional gaming, with accelerator based controls.  Well done!

Appliances:

There were quite a few additions to the appliance space this year:

• Samsung introduced a washer and dryer that will send you text messages when your clothes are done.
• Several companies offered advancements to the robotic vacuum market currently dominated by Rumba.  One of the more intriguing robo vacuums was an air filter on a  robot base, designed to navigate your home in search of the dirtiest air.
• LG introduced a fridge with a blast jet to cool a beer in 5 minutes and a bottle of wine in 8 mins.  Finally an invention that get me!

Tablets

Nothing really new here. Visio has a tablet. Viewsonic has a tablet.  Huawei has a tablet. All are supposed to be cheap, and all are likely to be crap.  The Playbook has new firmware to enable tablet functionality (email).  Intel has a chipset that can run android.  There are much fewer waves in the tablet space as compared to last year when every company that had access to LCDs was making a bid for the next great tablet.  It looks like the ipad has claimed that title and the industry is slowing starting to accept that hardware only approach to tablets will never be a sustainable business plan.

The Future of PCs

2011 was a bad year for PCs, and a great year for Macbooks.  So what do you think the creatives in the PC world do?  Make Ultrabooks!  Ultrabooks are the PCs attempt at a MacBook Air.  They are thin, they have great battery life, and they are expensive.  Some of the really cool ones to note are the Samsung Series 9., and the Lenovo Yoga. We all know that you can’t just copy an Apple product, make it run windows and hope to charge the same price.  So I don’t have high hopes for the Samsung Series 9.  However the Lenovo is something really cool.  It is a 10” tablet with touch panel, that has a swivel cover with integrated keypad.  Many companies have tried to implement this including Dell and HP and Asus.  But form factor is the killer in this market.  If your device is thicker than a tablet, and less functional than a PC you will fail.  That is why I excited for the Lenovo device.  If it really is thin enough to carry yet functional enough to use for work, it will do great.

The Future of TV

One of the highlights of the show this year was TVs.  The TV market as a whole saw explosive growth from 2005-2009.  That growth has since slowed and the TV companies now are in the uncomfortable position of find new value add or cut profit margins in order to move inventory.  So its little surprise when TV maker shareholders push for value add!  And that brings us to CES where consumers are pitched the new features and TV companies pray that one of them is viewed worth paying more for.

New Sizes.

The old CRTs had a 4:3 aspect ratio.  Most wide screen TVs are in 16:9 aspect ratios.  There is a new form factor on the market this year: the cinema wide, or Ultra Wide 21:9 ratio.  None of these widths were arbitrary, but originally followed the shape of the camera sensor.  I say that to inform you that if you purchase a Cinema wide TV, don’t be surprised when wheel of fortune has black lines on the side.  Standard TV camera’s are not slated to change anytime soon.

OLED.

The Korean’s came in strong with OLED.  Both LG and Samsung are showing off 55” OLED TVs.  They are bright, responsive, thin, and have great colors.  But still just flat screens.  People don’t care about the underlying technology when the fuction is the same as their $400 Visio.

 

New Backlights.

Truthfully, there is a lot of technology that can go into making a great backlight.  Thinner backlights, brighter backlights, more efficient backlights, all are in manufactures list for improvements this year.  All of the perspective marketing teams are hoping that consumers are willing to call this a value add and pay more for it.

Smart TVs

TV companies are pushing smart TVs, which are generally considered the future, however, the need for a whole new TV just for smart TV functionality is not needed, thanks to the numerous set-top boxes (think Roku, Boxee, Tivo, etc).  The problem with smart TVs is that the apps are not redily transferable from one TV to another.  So if your smart Samsung TV doesn’t have a Hulu app, and you want it, you are at the mercy of Samsung (or in this case Yahoo) to create an app for your specific environment.  As we all know in early technology wars, there are winners and there are losers.  And few people will risk purchasing an expensive TV that may end up on the losing end to a cheap set top box.

3D TVs.

This is where the developments look a little cooler.  Whether you chose to believe it or not, people only want glasses free 3D.  The active shutter TVs, versus passive TVs, will all go by the wayside once glasses-free is available.  Right now the industry is waiting for one thing: OLED.  OLED finally provides the needed frame-rate to present 3D seamlessly.  The announcements from LG and Samsung about their OLED TVs are precursors to autosteroscopic 3D.  According to Samsung and LG the technology will be commercially available in 2015, and 2014 respectively.  So, no, these TVs were not presented at this years CES, just talked about.

CES 2012: The couch edition

The Consumer Electronics Show: CES 2012 is in progress!  Although I am not there now, I was there last year, and years past.  The past trips gave me a realization.  Without the right credentials, you really can’t get truly good info.  Rather as you walk from both to both, you get the AOL homepage of technology overviews.  The booths are mostly manned by models who have memorized a marketing script, and respond to most questions with the comforting but empty response: “That’s a great question.”  So who then gets the real low down on hot gadgets and tech trends at CES?  Bloggers.  Bloggers get care packages, special credentials, their own lounge for interviews, and uploads, and exclusive blogger only events.  This is the one place where a underpaid writer of a techblog is heralded as the king of all he surveys.  And for good reason, no one will be researching their next camera purchase on NBC or CNN.  Rather a good review from CNET is the make or break of most electronic technology.

So this year, rather than fight the windmill of Vegas, hike miles of show-floor, squeeze through crowds, and comb through miles of marketing fluff.  I have relaxed and let the bloggers bring the real scoops to me.  From the comfort of my office, I receive interviews with executives, high res photos, and hands on demos of the products normally protected by bulletproof glass.  During the course of this year’s CES my Google reader has mined 3500 articles which I sort through and review.  Take a look through the next few posts, I as I attempt to bring you the nuggets buried in the lights and signs of CES.